Looking back at past financial warnings validated by subsequent events
Jul 24, 2011
I was looking back at my "financial" blogs from past years, because I was curious to know what the track record was.
I took note that in 2008 I was posting articles warning of a bank meltdown due to the derivatives market. One article from June 16, 2008 (which I posted on June 18, 2008) reads,
On the occasion of this 26th – Summer 2008 Special – edition of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, the LEAP/E2020 team has decided to launch an alert on the July-December 2008 period. Indeed, our team is now convinced that this period will consist for the whole world in a major plunge into the heart of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis. The upcoming six months are in fact the core of the unfolding crisis. The troubles met in the past six months were mere harbingers.In the next semester indeed, all the components of the crisis (financial, monetary, economic, strategic, social, political… ones) will converge at the height of their intensity.
Also on June 18, 2008, I posted a second article (dated that same day) which was a warning from the Royal Bank of Scotland.
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
These are just two articles warning people in advance. Perhaps some of you might find it amusing to go through the "Financial Crisis" category of weblogs and see how well I have done in posting the right warnings.
You may want to re-read the weblogs for October 2, 2008 to see how the financial meltdown actually occurred in September and how the government bailed out the banks.